That being said, of the films lining up to win gold in the top category of the night, Lady Bird has been my personal favorite. Through this upbeat and emotional directorial debut, Greta Gerwig has delivered a refreshing take on the coming-of-age story that is exceedingly authentic and heartfelt. Lead with a dynamite performance from Saoirse Ronan, this film sets itself apart from others of its genre.
As we approach the end of awards season, it appears as though Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri stands as the best picture frontrunner, followed closely by The Shape of Water. While The Shape of Water is beautifully constructed – and has a good chance at winning in the directing and below-the-line categories – I ultimately felt it was overrated. Sally Hawkins is terrific as the mute janitor Elisa, but the film failed to convince me that she would actually want to get funky with the fish-man. The narrative would have benefitted from further development of the relationship between the two lovers before the climax at the halfway mark of the movie. Nevertheless, the film has been a favorite among Oscar voters, leading the pack with 13 nominations. This Sunday, the film will be in close contention with fellow voter darling Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Three Billboards is supported by an unforgettable script from Martin McDonagh and career-defining performances from its cast, earning acting nominations for Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson, and Sam Rockwell. While I’m beyond pleased Rockwell has finally gotten recognition for his talents, his character’s arc has become a point of contention among viewers, some of whom question the nature of his supposed redemption. There are mentions near the outset of the film of Officer Dixon’s racist and prejudicial behavior, to which he is never asked to own up by the film’s closing, almost as if his past sins are inconsequential. This has stirred up controversy online, similar to the criticism that sunk La La Land last year, though not nearly to an equal degree, making it unlikely that Three Billboards will face the same upset.
Despite all predictions, in a year full of such strong films across the board, it’s impossible to know how things will play out. Additionally, with the cultural shift brought on by the Time’s Up movement and the exposure of misconduct in Hollywood, the landscape of the Oscars has undoubtedly changed, making best picture an especially difficult category to predict. Nothing will be certain until the final envelope of the night is read, hopefully correctly this time.